Silver Opening Range Breakout

For silver futures (SIL/SI), use 8:30 AM - 9:00 AM ET. For SLV ETF, use 9:30 AM - 10:00 AM ET (stock market open). The 30-minute window is recommended for silver due to its higher volatility - It needs time to settle.

No! Wait for a 5-minute candle to CLOSE beyond the OR level. First touches often reverse (wicks). The close confirms that buyers or sellers have conviction and the breakout is more likely real.

Wide ranges (>$0.40 or >130% of average) indicate a volatile day. The breakout may still work but requires larger stop distance. Use the middle of the range as stop (aggressive) to manage risk. Wide range days can produce large moves if they trend.

Exit at your targets (50% at 1x range, 25% at 2x range, trail the rest). If no target is hit, exit by 3:30 PM ET - ORB is a day trade strategy. Never hold overnight unless you've converted to a swing trade with that intention.

If you miss the initial breakout, you can: 1) Wait for a pullback to the OR level and enter on the bounce, or 2) Skip the trade and wait for tomorrow. Don't chase extended prices - Chasing leads to poor risk/reward.

Calculate the average 30-minute OR over the last 20 trading days. If today's OR is less than 70% of that average, it's a narrow range day. Example: 20-day avg OR = $0.30, Today's OR = $0.18 (60% of average) = Narrow range day.

Small gaps (<0.5%): Trade ORB normally. Large gaps: If ORB breaks in gap direction, it's high conviction (continuation). If ORB breaks opposite to gap, be cautious - It might be a gap fade but could also fill the gap completely.

This is a warning sign. Gold and silver are typically 0.8-0.9 correlated. If they break opposite, one of them is likely wrong. Reduce position size or skip the trade. Wait for them to align for higher probability.

False breakouts (35-45% in silver) are part of the game. Use your stop loss - Don't hope it will come back. If it closes on the opposite side of OR, exit. A failed breakout can become a trade opportunity in the opposite direction.

No. Skip days when: 1) Range is too wide (stop too large), 2) Major news imminent, 3) Filters conflict (gold opposite, VWAP misaligned), 4) You missed the optimal entry window. Quality over quantity.

Track your ORB trades: Win rate, average winner (R-multiple), average loser. Expectancy = (Win% × Avg Win) - (Loss% × Avg Loss). Example: 55% wins at 1.5R, 45% losses at 1R = (0.55 × 1.5) - (0.45 × 1) = +0.375R per trade. Positive = Profitable strategy.

Build or use a script that: 1) Identifies OR high/low at end of OR period, 2) Calculates range, 3) Alerts when price closes beyond OR with volume. Most platforms (TradingView, thinkorswim) support this with scripts. Start semi-automated (alerts + manual entry).

Only on strong trend days. After Target 1 is hit and you're in profit: Add a small position with its own stop at breakeven. Combined position is larger but protected. Don't pyramid on range days or if momentum is fading.

Track London ORB (3:00-3:30 AM ET) for early direction. US ORB (8:30-9:00) is most reliable. If US breaks same direction as London, higher conviction. If opposite, may be reversal day. Each session provides context for the others.

For day trades: Buy ATM or 1 strike OTM call (bullish break) or put (bearish break) with 0-3 DTE. Defined risk = Premium paid. For reduced cost: Use debit spreads (buy ATM, sell OTM). Exit by end of day with 50-100% profit target or 50% stop.