Trend-Following with Counter-Trend Entry Timing
| Strategy Type | Multi-Timeframe Trend and Oscillator System |
| Market Outlook | Trend-Following with Counter-Trend Entry Timing |
| Risk Profile | Moderate - Multiple filters reduce false signals |
| Reward Profile | Captures trends with optimized entries during pullbacks |
| Time Horizon | Swing trading (days to weeks) |
| Iv Environment | Works in any IV; focuses on price and momentum |
| Breakeven | Entry price +/- initial stop distance |
| Primary Instruments | SPY, QQQ, DIA (ETFs), Large-cap stocks, Futures (ES, NQ), Forex majors |
| Sec Compliance | Standard trading rules; no special requirements |
| Contract Size | 100 shares (stocks), varies by futures contract |
| Trading Hours | 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET (stocks), nearly 24 hours (futures/forex) |
| Expiry Options | N/A - Stock/ETF/Futures strategy (options overlay possible) |
| Settlement | T+1 for stocks/ETFs, same day for futures |
| Margin Requirements | Reg T for stocks (50% initial), varies for futures |
| Pdt Rule | Applicable if day trading; system designed for swing trading |
| Tax Treatment | Short-term capital gains for typical holding period |
Yes, that's the core concept. Each timeframe serves a different purpose: weekly for trend direction (strategic), daily for entry timing (tactical), intraday for precise entry (execution). You can use a charting platform that displays multiple timeframes simultaneously. The three screens work together to improve trade quality.
When the First Screen is unclear, don't trade that instrument. Triple Screen requires a clear trend direction. If weekly MACD-H is essentially flat (hovering near the same value), you have no 'tide' to trade with. Wait for a clear direction to develop or look at other instruments.
Yes, RSI is an acceptable alternative. Elder prefers Force Index because it incorporates volume, but RSI, Stochastic, or Williams %R all work. The key is having an oscillator that identifies overbought/oversold conditions. RSI below 30 in a weekly uptrend would be a buy setup.
Each day, adjust your buy stop lower (to above the current day's high). If the oscillator is no longer oversold or the weekly trend changes, cancel the order entirely - the setup has expired. Don't chase by using market orders; let the trailing stop do its job or walk away.
Hold until one of your exit conditions is met: daily oscillator reaches opposite extreme (overbought for longs), weekly MACD-H reverses direction, price hits your target, or stop loss is triggered. Typical holds are days to weeks. Don't set arbitrary time limits unless you add a 'time stop' to your rules.
Conflicting signals mean no trade. Triple Screen requires alignment: First Screen sets direction, Second Screen confirms entry zone. If First Screen is bullish but Second Screen oscillator is overbought (not oversold), there's no buy setup - the pullback hasn't happened. Wait for Second Screen to align or look elsewhere.
Yes, but adjust timeframes: use Daily for First Screen, 4-Hour for Second Screen, and 1-Hour or 30-Min for Third Screen. Maintain the ~5× ratio between timeframes. Day trading Triple Screen requires more monitoring but the principles are the same: trade with the daily trend, enter on 4-hour pullbacks.
Accept it and move on. Stops protect capital. If the setup is still valid (weekly trend intact, daily oscillator oversold again), you can re-enter using a new Third Screen order. Every successful trader has trades that would have worked if they'd held. The stop loss saved you from the ones that wouldn't have.
Use Elder's formula: Position Size = (Account × 2%) / Stop Distance. Example: $100K account, stop distance is $5. Max risk = $100K × 2% = $2,000. Position = $2,000 / $5 = 400 shares. Never exceed this regardless of how 'good' the setup looks. The 2% rule is non-negotiable.
Generally yes, for simplicity. Standard parameters (MACD 12,26,9, Force Index 2-EMA) work across most instruments. However, you might need to adjust oscillator thresholds for very volatile stocks (wider oversold bands). Test on each instrument to ensure parameters suit its volatility profile.
Create two scans: (1) Weekly scan for First Screen - filter for stocks where weekly MACD-H is rising (bullish list) or falling (bearish list). (2) Daily scan on those lists for Second Screen - filter for daily oscillator at extreme. The output is your 'setup list.' Third Screen orders are placed manually or via automated order systems. Most platforms (ThinkorSwim, TradingView) support custom scans.
Backtest each screen separately, then combined. Test First Screen's predictive power (does weekly MACD-H direction predict weekly price direction?). Test Second Screen's entry timing (does oversold entry outperform random entry?). Then test complete system. Use walk-forward analysis to avoid overfitting. Track performance by market regime (trending vs ranging).
In crashes, weekly MACD-H falls quickly (First Screen bearish). You'd be looking for short setups. Second Screen would find daily overbought rallies for short entry. The system should naturally flip bearish. The challenge: rapid moves may skip your entry orders. Consider using market orders in extreme conditions or sitting out the volatility.
Yes, and Elder encourages it. Use fundamentals for stock selection (which stocks to consider), then Triple Screen for timing. Example: Identify fundamentally strong stocks, then only buy when their weekly trend is bullish and daily is oversold. This combines fundamental edge with technical timing.
Professional funds often use similar concepts with more sophistication. They might use quantitative trend models for First Screen, factor-based signals for Second Screen, and algorithmic execution for Third Screen. The principles - multiple timeframe confirmation, trend-following with tactical entry, systematic risk management - are universal in professional systematic trading.
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