Trend Strength Portfolio

ADX measures trend STRENGTH (how strong the trend is) while moving averages show trend DIRECTION and support/resistance levels. ADX tells you whether a trend exists; moving averages tell you where it's going. They complement each other well.

ADX alone only tells you strength, not direction. A high ADX could be a strong uptrend OR a strong downtrend. +DI > -DI indicates uptrend; -DI > +DI indicates downtrend. You need both pieces of information for complete trend analysis.

Aim for 10-15 positions for adequate diversification without over-complication. Start with 5-8 as a beginner. Maximum 4 stocks from any single sector. More than 15 becomes difficult to monitor and dilutes returns.

DI crossover occurs when +DI crosses above -DI (bullish) or -DI crosses above +DI (bearish). It signals a potential change in trend direction. Combined with ADX > 20, crossovers can provide entry and exit signals.

Exit when: (1) ADX drops below 20 (trend died), (2) Opposite DI crossover occurs, (3) ADX peaks above 40 and turns down (exhaustion), (4) Price closes below 50 DMA, or (5) Stop loss hit. Weekly monitoring helps catch these signals.

Exhaustion signs: ADX peaks above 40-45 and starts declining, DI lines converging, price showing reversal candlesticks despite high ADX. This is Stage 4 in the trend lifecycle - take profits and tighten stops.

For long-only investors, focus on uptrends (+DI > -DI). For advanced traders, going long uptrends AND short downtrends creates a market-neutral portfolio. Shorting requires CFD/spread-bet or options access and carries additional risks.

Stocks in trending sectors have tailwind support. Best setup: Strong stock trend + Strong sector trend (double tailwind). Avoid stocks with strong trends in weak sectors - they may be fighting sector headwinds.

Two methods: (1) 2x ATR below entry - adjusts for stock volatility, or (2) Fixed 8-10% from entry. Trail stops using 20 EMA as trend progresses. Trend trades need wider stops than mean reversion trades.

Weekly review: Check ADX and DI for all positions, identify weakening/strengthening trends. Monthly full rebalance: Re-run complete scan, rotate out underperformers, rotate in new leaders. More frequent rebalancing increases costs.

Combine multiple factors: ADX (25%), DI difference (20%), price momentum (20%), MA alignment (15%), sector alignment (10%), trend consistency (10%). Normalize each to 0-100, weight and sum for composite score. Score > 70 = priority, < 50 = avoid.

Trending bull: ADX threshold 22, full position size. Trending bear: ADX 25, 75% size, focus on shorts. Ranging: ADX 30 (higher bar), 50% size. High volatility: ADX 30, 50% size, wider stops. Detect regime weekly using VFTSE and market trend.

Weight each position inversely to its volatility (Weight = 1/Vol, then normalize). Low-volatility stocks get more capital, high-volatility stocks get less. Result: Each position contributes equal risk. Creates smoother returns and lower drawdowns.

Key features: ADX momentum (5-day change), DI difference, sector ADX, price momentum (ROC), volume trend. XGBoost or Random Forest work well. Feature importance analysis typically shows ADX momentum and DI difference as most predictive.

Long sleeve: 10 stocks with ADX > 25, +DI > -DI. Short sleeve: 10 stocks with ADX > 25, -DI > +DI (using CFDs or put options). Balance: 50/50 for market-neutral or 60/40 for long bias. Rebalance weekly. Profits from trends in both directions regardless of market.