Profits from explosive moves following periods of low volatility compression
| Strategy Type | Volatility Squeeze / Breakout / Expansion Trading |
| Market Outlook | Profits from explosive moves following periods of low volatility compression |
| Risk Profile | Moderate - defined entry/exit but direction can be wrong |
| Reward Profile | Captures large moves as volatility expands from compressed state |
| Time Horizon | Swing trading (days to weeks) |
| Iv Environment | Enter during low volatility (squeeze), profit during high volatility (expansion) |
| Breakeven | Price moves sufficiently in breakout direction to cover entry and stop |
| Primary Instruments | Spot Silver CFD (XAGUSD), COMEX Silver Futures (SI), Micro Silver (SIL) |
| Fca Compliance | Standard futures/CFD trading; no special restrictions on volatility strategies |
| Contract Specifications | Variable per broker, typically $1-10 per $0.01 move • $50 per $0.01 (5,000 oz contract) • $10 per $0.01 (1,000 oz contract) |
| Silver Volatility Characteristics | Silver BBands typically 3-8% width • < 3% indicates significant squeeze • Silver can move 5-15% after major squeeze • Typically 5-15 days before release |
| Uk Trading Sessions | Daily chart analysis, any time • Best during London/US sessions for liquidity • Check daily for squeeze status changes |
| Uk Access Methods | Tax-free, Bollinger Bands on all platforms • Flexible sizing, good for squeeze trading • SI/SIL for larger positions |
| Indicator Availability | Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels available on all UK platforms |
| Margin Requirements | SI: ~$14,000. SIL: ~$2,800. CFDs: 5-10% typical. |
Use Bandwidth indicator: (Upper - Lower) / Middle × 100. For silver, below 3% is squeeze territory. Also compare to recent history - if current bandwidth is at or near the lowest in 1-3 months, it's a significant squeeze.
No. The squeeze tells you WHEN to be ready, not WHEN to trade. Wait for the BREAKOUT - price closing beyond the band with volume. The squeeze can last days or weeks before releasing.
Use momentum indicators during the squeeze: MACD histogram rising = likely upward, falling = likely downward. Price position in the squeeze range also helps. But ultimately, wait for the breakout to confirm direction before entering.
Exit immediately when price closes back inside the bands. Failed breakout = quick reversal. Your stop should protect you. Don't re-enter the same direction immediately. A failed breakout sometimes signals opportunity in the opposite direction.
Standard settings work well: 20-period SMA with 2 standard deviations. For Keltner Channels (if using for confirmation): 20-period EMA with 1.5× ATR. These are defaults on most platforms.
TTM Squeeze combines Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, and momentum into one indicator. It provides clear binary squeeze signal (red/green dots) plus momentum direction (histogram). More systematic than visual Bollinger analysis.
No. Best squeezes are: (1) Very tight (bandwidth at multi-month low), (2) Proper duration (5+ bars), (3) Clear momentum direction, (4) Aligned with higher timeframe. Skip weak squeezes or those against major trend.
Some squeezes persist for weeks. Stay patient - don't force entries. If squeeze continues beyond 20 bars without release, the eventual move is often very strong. Only skip if squeeze weakens (bands start expanding without directional break).
After 1R profit, move stop to middle band (20 SMA). Trail with middle band daily. Exit when: (1) Price closes below middle band, (2) Bands start contracting, (3) Target hit. Trailing captures larger moves while protecting profit.
Yes. Daily is most reliable for swing trades. Weekly squeeze suggests major move (position trade). 4H/1H work for shorter-term. Best signals when multiple timeframes align (weekly squeeze releasing, daily confirms).
Default (BB 20/2, KC 20/1.5) works for most. For silver specifically, can try tighter Keltner (20/1.0) for more signals or wider (20/2.0) for fewer but stronger signals. Backtest any changes over 5+ years before implementing.
Options benefit from direction (delta) AND volatility expansion (vega). During squeeze, IV is often low (cheap options). Buy straddles for direction-agnostic play, or directional options (calls/puts) once breakout direction confirmed. Defined risk is key advantage.
Coiling = progressively tighter squeezes (each bandwidth lower than previous). Indicates building pressure for significant release. Trade the definitive breakout from the coil. These often produce the largest moves.
Define: Squeeze criteria (bandwidth threshold, duration). Direction rules (MACD histogram). Entry trigger (close beyond band + volume). Stop (outside squeeze range). Target (2R or trail). Backtest 5-10 years. Execute mechanically. Expect 50-60% win rate, 1.5-2.0 profit factor.
Monitor gold (high correlation) - if both metals squeezing, sector move likely. Check USD (inverse correlation) - USD squeeze could drive metals. Cross-confirm: Silver squeeze + gold squeeze + USD breakdown = high conviction silver long.
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