Works Best When Confirming Trend Presence
| Strategy Type | Trend Strength Measurement System |
| Market Outlook | Works Best When Confirming Trend Presence |
| Risk Profile | Defined by ATR or Swing-Based Stop |
| Reward Profile | Unlimited in Direction of Strong Trend |
| Time Horizon | Swing Trading to Position Trading |
| Indicator Type | Trend Intensity Index (TII) - 0 to 100 Scale |
| Signal Type | Buy When TII > 80 (Strong Uptrend); Sell When TII < 20 (Strong Downtrend) |
| Primary Instruments | STI ETF, DBS, OCBC, UOB, SINGTEL, CapitaLand, Keppel |
| Trading Hours | 9:00 AM - 5:00 PM SGT |
| Recommended Timeframes | Daily for swing trading; Weekly for position trading |
| Currency | SGD |
| Default Settings | TII(30) with 60-period SMA as reference - Standard for SGX stocks |
| Liquidity Note | Works well on liquid stocks with clear trending behavior |
| Typical Holding Period | 2-8 weeks per trade on daily timeframe |
TII > 80 indicates a strong uptrend (80%+ of days above MA). TII < 20 indicates a strong downtrend (80%+ of days below MA). TII between 40-60 means no clear trend.
Standard settings are TII(30) with a 60-period SMA. The TII period should be about 50% of the MA period. Start with these and adjust based on your trading style.
TII > 80 confirms a strong uptrend, making it a good environment for long trades. Best entries are when TII first crosses above 80. Also confirm price is above the MA.
TII = 50 means exactly half the days closed above the MA and half below. This indicates no trend - the market is balanced between buyers and sellers. Avoid trend trades in this zone.
Common exits: When TII drops below 50 (trend weakening significantly), when TII drops below 80 (earlier exit), or when your stop-loss is hit. Use a combination of TII signal and trailing stop.
Calculate the reference MA (e.g., 60 SMA). Count how many of the last n days (e.g., 30) had close > MA. TII = (Up Days / n) × 100. Example: 24 of 30 days above MA = TII of 80.
Bullish divergence: Price makes lower low but TII makes higher low (selling exhausting). Bearish divergence: Price makes higher high but TII makes lower high (buying exhausting). These warn of potential reversals.
Use TII > 80 for trend confirmation, then: RSI pullback for entry timing, ADX > 25 for trend strength confirmation, volume above average for conviction. TII provides direction; others provide timing.
TII(14) is more responsive with more signals but more noise. TII(30) is smoother with fewer but more reliable signals. Use shorter for active trading, longer for position trading.
Use weekly TII for major trend direction (>60 bullish), daily TII for entry signals (crossing 80). Only take daily long signals when weekly TII supports. Full alignment = highest conviction.
TII ROC = Current TII - Previous TII. It measures momentum of the TII itself. Rising ROC = trend accelerating. Falling ROC (while TII still high) = early warning of trend exhaustion.
Calculate TII for all stocks in universe. Count percentage with TII > 60. Above 70% = broad bullish momentum. Below 40% = broad bearish. Use for market timing and exposure decisions.
Adaptive TII adjusts the period based on market volatility. Formula: Period = Base × (Average ATR / Current ATR). In high volatility, period increases for smoothing. In low volatility, period decreases for responsiveness.
TII performs poorly in ranging markets where it oscillates between 40-60 without clear direction. Also struggles in very choppy markets with frequent reversals. Use regime detection to identify these conditions.
TII > 80: Buy calls or sell put spreads (bullish bias). TII < 20: Buy puts or sell call spreads (bearish bias). Use 45-60 DTE. Exit when TII reverses or at 50% profit. Higher TII = higher conviction for directional plays.
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