Intraday Trend Catcher

Trading strategy that identifies and rides same-day directional moves in FTSE. Uses opening range breakout to identify trend direction, VWAP for confirmation, and trails to capture trend. Flat before session close - no overnight risk.

Entry technique based on breaking the high or low of the first 30 minutes (08:00-08:30 London). Breakout above OR high = long signal. Breakout below OR low = short signal. Requires confirmation (close beyond, volume, VWAP).

Volume Weighted Average Price - the average price weighted by volume. Institutional benchmark. Above VWAP = buyers winning. Below VWAP = sellers winning. Use as filter (only long above, short below) and trail reference.

Only 15-25% of days are trend days. On range days, you'll be stopped out for small losses. On trend days, you capture large moves. Math works: Few large wins offset many small losses. Focus on expectancy, not win rate.

Best: 4:30-7 PM SGT (UK morning, OR breakout and trend development) and 10:30 PM-12 AM SGT (US overlap). Avoid: 3-4 PM SGT (pre-market), 7-8:30 PM SGT (UK lunch). Exit by 12:15-12:30 AM SGT.

Trend day signs: Gap in trend direction (no fill), clean OR break with volume, price stays one side of VWAP, one-time framing (each bar makes new extreme), shallow pullbacks. Score these factors for systematic assessment.

Swing-based: Trail below swing lows (longs) or above swing highs (shorts). ATR trail: Trail at 2× ATR from extreme. VWAP trail: Exit if price closes beyond VWAP. Combine: Trail with swing method, tighten near session end.

First entry: 50-60% size on OR breakout. Second entry: 30-40% on pullback to VWAP or swing low/high. Only add when: Trend confirmed, pullback shallow, time permits. Never add to losers.

Large gap (>0.5%) in direction doesn't fill in first 30 min. Entry: Buy pullback to VWAP or swing. Stop: Below gap low. Shows strong overnight/pre-market conviction with follow-through.

Set daily loss limit (1-2% of account) before session. Per trade risk 0.5-1%. Maximum 2-3 trades per day. After 2 consecutive losses, done for day. Protect winning days by tightening after profit threshold.

Market profile shows Value Area (70% of time). Breakout beyond value = strong trend signal. Initial Balance extension similar to OR breakout. Poor highs/lows often get tested. Naked POCs are magnets. Combine with VWAP for high-probability levels.

Cumulative Delta (CVD) rising/falling with price = confirmed trend. Positive delta on up moves, negative on down moves. Absorption at levels shows holding. Trend days have one-directional flow; range days have mixed/diverging flow.

Walk-forward testing: Optimize on 6 months, test on 2 months, roll forward. Test OR duration (15-60 min), stop multiplier (1.0-2.0 ATR), confirmation time (5-30 min). Parameters should work across reasonable ranges. Avoid over-optimization.

Initial Balance = first hour's range. Extension = price breaking beyond IB after first hour. IB extension often signals trend day (65%+ correlation). Similar to OR breakout but 60 min timeframe. Used in market profile analysis.

Win rate (35-50%), Avg R:R (2:1+), Profit Factor (>1.5), Trend day capture rate (>60%), Daily Sharpe (>1.0). Analyze by: day type, session time, entry type, volatility, day of week. Minimum 50 trades for valid analysis.