Brent Crude Swing Trader

Swing trading typically requires 1-2 hours per day for analysis and monitoring. Check Weekly charts once a week for trend. Review Daily charts each evening for setups. Monitor positions 1-2 times daily during active sessions.

Recommend minimum S$10,000 for swing trading oil. This allows proper position sizing (1-1.5% risk per trade = S$100-150) while maintaining meaningful position sizes. With wider swing stops, smaller accounts struggle with adequate position sizing.

CFD brokers charge overnight financing (swap/rollover) for positions held past daily cutoff. For Brent, this is typically 0.01-0.03% per day. Over a 10-day swing, costs accumulate to 0.1-0.3%. Factor into profit calculations but usually minor vs swing profit potential.

Three timeframes: Weekly for primary trend direction, Daily for swing structure and setup identification, 4H for entry timing. This multi-timeframe approach ensures you're trading in the direction of the larger trend while timing entries precisely.

Primary target: Previous swing high (for longs) or swing low (for shorts). Options: (1) Full exit at target, (2) Partial exit at target with trailing stop on remainder, (3) Trail entire position with stop below recent minor swing low. Also use time stops if no progress.

If gap is through your stop: Exit immediately at market, don't hope for recovery. Accept the larger loss - it's why swing risk is 1-1.5% not 2%. If gap is toward your stop but not through: Assess if thesis is still valid. If yes, hold with existing stop. If no, exit to limit damage.

Depends on your setup: If trade is well in profit with stop at breakeven, can hold through EIA. If recently entered near stop, consider closing before EIA - the event risk may not be worth it. Also consider: Is report likely to be high-impact (first after major supply disruption) or routine?

Grade by confluence: A-grade (3+ factors): Previous swing + Fibonacci + trendline. B-grade (2 factors): Previous swing + one confluence factor. C-grade (1 factor): Just previous swing level. Trade A-grade with full size, B-grade with standard size, skip or reduce C-grade.

Swing low bounce: Occurs within intact uptrend structure (previous higher lows maintained). Trade as continuation. Trend reversal: Price breaks below previous swing low, violating uptrend structure. This suggests trend change - don't buy the 'dip', wait for new trend confirmation.

Methods: (1) Move stop to below each new minor swing low as they form (longs). (2) Use ATR trailing - stop at 2× ATR below highest high since entry. (3) Trendline trailing - stop below rising trendline. Key: Don't trail too tight; give room for normal pullbacks.

Components: (1) Swing detection algorithm using local high/low criteria, (2) Trend classification from swing structure, (3) Entry trigger when price reaches swing zone with lower timeframe confirmation, (4) Stop/target calculation from swing levels and ATR, (5) Position sizing module. Test with walk-forward optimization across multiple regimes.

Multiple applications: (1) Defined risk entry - buy call at swing low instead of CFD (max loss = premium). (2) Hedge existing position - buy put against profitable CFD long. (3) Income - sell covered calls against swing position after move in favor. (4) Spread strategies - verticals for defined risk directional swings.

Allocation: 30-40% of active trading capital to swing strategies. Position limits: Max 3-4 swing positions in oil simultaneously. Risk budget: Total swing risk under 3% account. Diversification: Include uncorrelated strategies (mean reversion, different asset classes). Review allocation monthly based on performance and conditions.

COT analysis: Commercials (hedgers) at extreme net short in oil = potentially bullish (they sell high). Large specs at extreme net long = potentially bearish (crowded trade). Use as context: Swing long setup with bullish COT positioning = higher confidence. Don't trade COT alone; use as confirmation.

Key metrics: Win rate (aim for 45-55%), average winner vs average loser (aim for 2:1+), R-multiple distribution, maximum drawdown, recovery time, Sharpe ratio, profit factor (>1.5). Also track: best performing setups, time in trades, correlation to benchmark. Monthly and quarterly reviews essential.