Captures sustained trends with built-in trailing stop mechanism
| Strategy Type | Trend Following with Dynamic Stop Loss |
| Market Outlook | Captures sustained trends with built-in trailing stop mechanism |
| Risk Profile | Low to Moderate - Clear stop levels defined by indicator |
| Reward Profile | Unlimited profit potential in trending markets; 1:2 to 1:4 typical R:R |
| Time Horizon | Swing trading (3-15 days) to Positional (1-3 months) |
| Capital Requirement | C$15,000 - C$60,000 for cash (RY trades near C$280, so 100 shares ~ C$28,000); C$10,000+ for option-based expression |
| Margin Type | Cash for delivery; CDCC/CIRO margin for options and share futures |
| Best Used When | RY in a clear trending phase with adequate volatility |
| Tsx Applicability | RY is the most heavily weighted constituent of the S&P/TSX 60 and among the most liquid names on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Deep, persistent institutional ownership (pension funds, index trackers, large-cap mandates) produces orderly, sustained moves - exactly the clean trend structure Supertrend needs to generate reliable, low-noise signals. |
| Csa Ciro Compliance | Standard discretionary technical-indicator strategy - fully compliant. TSX trading is supervised by CIRO under its market-integrity rules, with the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and the relevant provincial regulator (e.g. OSC in Ontario, AMF in Quebec) as the statutory authorities. RY options and share futures are listed on the Montreal Exchange (Bourse de Montreal / MX) and cleared by the Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation (CDCC). |
| Lot Sizes | 100 shares per contract (MX standard); American-style, physically settled • 100 shares per contract (MX), physically delivered via CDS - but single-stock share-futures liquidity is thin; for index/market hedging the liquid instrument is SXF (S&P/TSX 60 future, C$200 x index, cash-settled) • TSX board lot is 100 shares for stocks >= C$1.00; odd lots trade freely - no practical retail restriction, typically 25-300 shares based on capital |
| Trading Hours | 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET (TSX cash and MX equity options); SXF index futures 9:30 AM - 4:15 PM ET plus an overnight session. Signals are computed on daily/hourly closes (settlement-on-close) |
| Expiry Considerations | Equity options and share futures expire the third Friday (monthly/quarterly cycle). For share-futures positions, roll 3-5 days before expiry to maintain trend exposure. Watch RY ex-dividend dates (RBC pays a quarterly dividend, ~late Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct): short ITM American-style calls carry early-assignment risk just before ex-div |
| Tax Implications | Capital treatment: 50% inclusion rate - only half the gain is added to income at your marginal rate; Canada has no short-term vs long-term holding distinction. Frequent/active trading can be reassessed by CRA as business income (100% taxable, losses fully deductible). Equity-option and share-futures gains are often on income account for active traders. A subsection 39(4) election can lock 'Canadian securities' to capital treatment (irrevocable; unavailable to traders/dealers, and it does not extend to derivatives or short sales). Day-trading inside a TFSA risks being deemed a business and fully taxed (Ahamed TFSA: 2023 TCC 17, affirmed 2024 FCA 108). The superficial-loss rule (30 days) is Canada's wash-sale analog |
Default 10/3.0 works well for daily charts. For more signals, try 7/2.5. For fewer but stronger signals, try 14/3.5. Start with default and adjust based on your experience.
No. Supertrend automatically trails as price moves in your favour. Simply update your stop to match the current Supertrend value daily.
You can enter the next day at open if Supertrend color hasn't changed. Or wait for a pullback to Supertrend for better entry. Don't chase if price has moved significantly.
Yes. Use hourly or 15-minute timeframe with tighter settings (7/2.0) within the 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET session. However, daily Supertrend for swing trading is more reliable for beginners.
False signals occur in range-bound markets. Check ADX - if below 20, market is choppy. Also check if there were multiple recent flips. Supertrend works best in trending markets.
Best combinations: ADX for trend strength (>25), RSI for momentum (>50 for longs), 50 EMA for trend confirmation. Don't over-complicate - max 2-3 indicators total.
Yes, if a fresh valid signal occurs (new color flip). But wait for confirmation - don't enter immediately after stop. The new signal should meet all criteria.
Avoid new entries 5 days before results (RBC reports ~late Feb/May/Aug and early Dec on its Oct-31 fiscal year). For existing positions, either exit before results or widen stop. Post-earnings, wait for volatility to settle before fresh signals.
Supertrend doesn't dictate holding period - you hold until color flips. Typically 1-4 weeks for daily chart trades. Could be months in strong trends.
If price gaps below Supertrend (e.g. on a bad earnings or rate surprise), exit at open. Don't wait hoping it recovers. The gap itself confirms trend change. Accept the larger loss and move on.
Quarterly review is sufficient. Only change parameters if performance degrades for 3+ months. Standard 10/3.0 is robust - over-optimization often hurts more than helps.
Supertrend typically wins 45-55% of trades. Profitability comes from wins being 2-3x larger than losses. Focus on letting winners run rather than improving win rate.
Use fixed fractional: Position = Risk Amount / Supertrend Distance. Wide Supertrend = smaller position. This keeps risk constant regardless of volatility.
ML can help with: parameter adaptation based on regime, signal filtering, position sizing optimization. However, simple rule-based Supertrend is often competitive. Test thoroughly before adding ML complexity.
Allocate 25-30% to Supertrend strategies across 3-5 uncorrelated stocks. Note that Canadian large-caps are bank- and energy-heavy, so a basket of RY/TD/BMO is NOT diversified - mix sectors. Track aggregate exposure, use correlation filters, and review portfolio metrics monthly.
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