Identifies support/resistance, breakouts, and price targets
| Strategy Type | Price-Based Trend and Breakout System |
| Market Outlook | Identifies support/resistance, breakouts, and price targets |
| Risk Profile | Defined by box reversal; typically 2-4% per trade |
| Reward Profile | Clear price targets; captures major moves |
| Time Horizon | Swing to position trading (weeks to months) |
| Best Conditions | Trending markets with defined support/resistance levels |
| Indicator Basis | Price-only X and O columns with box size and reversal criteria |
| Primary Instruments | XIU, XIC (index ETFs); Major banks (RY, TD, BMO); ZSP (S&P 500) |
| Trading Hours | 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET |
| Settlement | T+1 for stocks and ETFs |
| Tax Treatment | Capital gains 50% inclusion rate |
| Tfsa Eligibility | YES - Stock/ETF trading permitted |
| Rrsp Eligibility | YES - Stock/ETF trading permitted |
| Commission Consideration | Lower frequency trading; commission impact minimal |
| Currency Note | Consider CAD/USD exposure for US-listed instruments |
| Liquidity Note | Works well with liquid Canadian securities |
1-box reversal starts a new column with just one box of opposite movement (more sensitive, more columns). 3-box reversal requires 3 boxes of opposite movement (filters more noise, fewer columns). 3-box is standard and recommended for most traders.
Start with ATR-based box size (14-period ATR value) which automatically adapts to volatility. Alternatively, use traditional scaling (e.g., $0.50 for $20-40 stocks, $1.00 for $40-100). Test different sizes to find what works for your timeframe.
P&F removes time completely and only plots significant price movement. The X and O columns replace candlesticks, and only moves meeting the box size criteria appear. This creates a cleaner view of supply/demand.
Yes, P&F-based trading is suitable for TFSA accounts. The strategy typically involves longer holding periods (weeks to months), which is ideal for registered accounts.
Many charting platforms support P&F, including TradingView (free), ThinkorSwim, and StockCharts.com. Some brokers also offer P&F charting. You can even construct P&F manually with price data.
First targets from vertical or horizontal counts are fairly reliable (often reached 60-70% of the time in trending markets). Extended targets are less reliable. Always use stops - exit if a reversal signal occurs before target is reached.
Vertical count works better after a clear reversal from consolidation. Horizontal count works better for breakouts from extended consolidation patterns. Many traders calculate both and use the more conservative estimate.
Use P&F for: signal identification, S/R levels, price targets. Use candlestick charts for: actual entry prices, stop placement, volume analysis, gap checking. Keep both charts open when trading.
The Catapult confirms a breakout in three ways: 1) Initial triple top breakout shows demand, 2) Pullback that holds proves old resistance is now support, 3) New high shows momentum continues. This multi-confirmation makes it highly reliable.
For bullish support: start at a significant O column low, draw up at 45° (one box up for each column to the right). For bearish resistance: start at X column high, draw down at 45°. Use these as trend filters.
Scan for: recent breakouts (double/triple top in last 1-2 columns), trendline position (above bullish support), target potential (>10% to calculated target). Rank by pattern strength, relative strength, and volume. Most platforms require custom scripting.
RS P&F compares stock performance to an index. A stock giving a buy signal while RS is also positive (rising) indicates strength in a strong stock. This dual confirmation increases success rate. RS can also identify sector leadership.
Fulcrum is a defined consolidation with a U-shaped bottom and clear boundaries. Saucer is a gradual, extended rounding with no clear structure. Both suggest accumulation, but Fulcrum has clearer breakout points.
Use 1-box reversal instead of 3-box for more sensitivity. Use smaller box sizes (e.g., 0.25-0.5× ATR). Build P&F from intraday data (1-min or 5-min). Accept that signals will still lag compared to candlesticks.
Well-designed P&F systems (triple tops, catapults, trendline filters) typically achieve 50-60% win rates. Profitability comes from the price target methodology - winners often exceed targets while stops limit losers. Expect higher R-multiples than win rate alone suggests.
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