Works in Range-Bound to Mildly Trending Markets
| Strategy Type | Mean Reversion with RSI Screening Across Universe |
| Market Outlook | Works in Range-Bound to Mildly Trending Markets |
| Risk Level | Low to Moderate |
| Time Horizon | Short to Medium Term (2-10 days typical) |
| Best Conditions | Stocks at RSI extremes with reversal confirmation, sector rotation opportunities, oversold bounces in uptrends |
| Avoid When | Strong trending markets, momentum crashes, extreme fear (VIX > 30), earnings-season peaks (note: Canadian banks report on a fiscal calendar, late Feb / May / Aug / Nov) |
| Exchange | TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange); options trade on the Bourse de Montreal (Montreal Exchange); avoid TSX Venture (TSXV) micro-caps for this strategy |
| Trading Hours | 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET |
| Scan Timing | After 4:00 PM ET for next day trades • Every 30 minutes for active traders • Friday EOD for swing positions |
Use your trading platform's screener with criteria: RSI(14) < 30, Average daily value > C$1M. Run the scan after market close (4:00 PM ET) for next day trades. Sort results by RSI from lowest to highest to prioritize most extreme stocks.
No. RSI < 30 is just the first filter. You should also check: trend (prefer above 200 DMA), confirmation (wait for RSI to cross above 30), volume (higher on bounce), and fundamentals. Only trade stocks that pass multiple filters.
Aim for 5-10 stocks for diversification without overcomplication. Start with 3-5 as a beginner. Each stock should be ~5-10% of your trading capital. More than 10 becomes difficult to manage and dilutes returns.
Typically 2-10 trading days. Most RSI reversion happens within a week of confirmation. If RSI hasn't improved after 10 days, consider exiting. Some traders use shorter (2-3 day) or longer (15-20 day) periods based on their style.
Two common methods: (1) Below recent swing low - place stop below the lowest point of the oversold period. (2) 2x ATR below entry - volatility-adjusted stop. Either way, ensure the stop represents 2% or less of your total capital.
Compare price lows/highs with RSI lows/highs. Bullish divergence: Price makes lower low, but RSI makes higher low (momentum improving despite price decline). This is powerful confirmation of impending reversal. Many platforms have divergence scanners.
Prioritize uptrend (price above 200 DMA) for long positions. You're buying a pullback in a rising trend - trend momentum supports recovery. Downtrend oversold is riskier - you're trying to catch a falling knife. Use stricter criteria and smaller size for downtrend entries.
Calculate average RSI for each sector (e.g., average RSI of all the big Canadian banks). When a sector's average RSI drops below 35, it's a rotation candidate. Buy 3-4 best stocks from that sector. As the sector recovers, all holdings benefit.
For oversold stocks: Long calls (bullish), bull call spreads (defined risk), or sell cash-secured puts (collect premium). For overbought: Long puts, bear put spreads. IV is often elevated on oversold stocks, making selling strategies attractive. Canadian equity options trade on the Bourse de Montreal at 100 shares per contract.
When weekly and daily RSI conflict (e.g., weekly overbought, daily oversold), the higher timeframe usually dominates. Daily oversold in weekly overbought is likely just a bounce - trade with reduced size and quick exits. Best setups have weekly and daily aligned.
Collect historical data for your universe. Optimize RSI parameters (period, thresholds) using walk-forward testing. Add filters (trend, quality) and measure improvement. Use ML to combine RSI with other features for return prediction. Backtest with realistic costs. Validate out-of-sample before live trading.
Calculate each stock's volatility (20-day std dev). Weight = 1/Volatility, then normalize weights to sum to 100%. Low vol stocks get more capital, high vol stocks get less. This equalizes risk contribution. Rebalance weekly when volatilities change.
Bull market: Stricter oversold (25), looser overbought (75). Bear market: Stricter overbought (65), looser oversold (35). High volatility: Trade only extremes (<20, >80) with half position size. Ranging: Standard 30/70 works well. Detect regime using 200 DMA trend and VIX level (CBOE VIX, or VIXC for the S&P/TSX 60).
Typically: RSI level, RSI velocity (rate of change), distance from 200 DMA, sector RSI, volume ratio. These capture mean reversion potential and trend context. Feature importance analysis helps identify what matters most for your specific universe.
Calculate portfolio volatility using risk parity weights. Set target vol (e.g., 15% annual). Scale entire portfolio: Leverage = Target Vol / Realized Vol. If realized is 12%, scale up by 1.25x. If realized is 20%, scale down by 0.75x. Maintains consistent risk profile over time.
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