| Market Hours Strategy | Review the prior session's Volume Profile (day session and overnight); mark POC, VAH, VAL. The SPI 200 overnight session (from ~5:10 PM AEST) reacts to US/European markets and frames the next morning's gap. • 10:00-11:00 AM AEST - ASX cash equities open (SPI 200 day session from 9:50 AM). Note where price opens relative to the prior day's Value Area and the overnight range. • 11:00 AM-3:00 PM AEST - Best window for Volume Profile trades as the day-session profile develops with steady liquidity. • 3:00-4:00 PM AEST - Cash market closes 4:00 PM (Closing Single Price Auction ~4:10 PM); SPI 200 day session runs to 4:30 PM. Profile near complete; mark key levels for the next session. |
| Asx Specific | Use 30-min or hourly bars; the daily POC is the key reference. Choose a day-session-only profile for domestic-flow context, or a 24-hour profile to include overnight global flow. • Day session (9:50 AM-4:30 PM AEST) reflects domestic participation; the overnight session reflects US/European reaction. Watch where the day open sits versus the overnight value area for gap context. • Australia has no liquid single-stock futures; apply Volume Profile to the SPI 200 and to highly liquid ASX 200 cash equities (e.g., BHP, CBA, CSL, NAB, WBC). • SPI 200 = A$25 per index point (~A$215,000 notional near 8,600). Mini SPI 200 (AM) ~ A$5 per point (one-fifth size) for finer position sizing. Factor the per-point value into sizing. • Use IRESS, ASX market data, or a reputable broker/charting feed (Interactive Brokers, CommSec, TradingView, Sierra Chart) for accurate volume-at-price. |
| Asx24 Commodities | Volume Profile works on ASX 24 grains (Eastern/Western Australia Wheat, Canola, Barley) but liquidity is thinner than the equity index; prefer daily/weekly profiles and wider value areas. • NSW/VIC/QLD/SA base-load and peak futures are seasonal and less suited to short-term profile trading; use longer composite profiles. • Greasy Wool futures trade on ASX 24 with thin volume; use wide value areas and longer timeframes. • Australia has no local gold/crude/natural-gas futures. Access Gold (COMEX), WTI/Brent crude (CME/ICE) and Henry Hub gas via global brokers, or use ASX-listed commodity ETFs (e.g., GOLD, PMGOLD). Most retail metal/energy profile trading uses these international contracts. • ASX 24 grain sessions vary by product; international commodities follow their home-exchange hours (overnight for Australian traders), so profiles span multiple sessions. |
| Currency Futures | AUD/USD is the primary pair; the deepest exchange-traded contract is the CME AUD future (6A, USD-denominated). Local retail FX is largely spot/CFD. Profiles form on liquid global volume. • AUD is a commodity/risk currency - correlated with iron-ore and China demand, global risk appetite, and the Australia-US rate differential; these drive profile formation. • RBA cash-rate decisions (eight scheduled meetings a year since the 2024 reform) drive AUD volatility and create distinct HVNs; mark these levels. The RBA rarely intervenes directly in the FX market. |
| Tax Implications | Australia has no securities transaction tax and no stamp duty on listed share/derivative trades; costs are brokerage and exchange/clearing fees only. • A trader carrying on a business of trading is assessed on revenue account - net profits are ordinary assessable income and losses are deductible (subject to non-commercial loss rules); the 50% CGT discount does not apply and futures rarely qualify for it. Investors not carrying on a business may hold on capital account (CGT applies, with a 50% discount on assets held over 12 months). The ATO weighs frequency, volume, business-like organisation and intention. • Trading financial instruments is an input-taxed financial supply; no GST is payable on trading gains, and input-tax credits on related costs are limited. • The ATO requires retaining contract notes and statements for five years; document the profile levels used for each entry/exit. • PAYG instalments (paid quarterly) replace advance tax once business/investment income exceeds ATO thresholds; the ATO notifies the instalment obligation. |
| Institutional Correlation | Superannuation funds (the dominant domestic institutions) and foreign investors create prominent HVNs; track these levels. • Large institutional trades cluster as volume spikes, especially in the Closing Single Price Auction, which is heavily institutional. • S&P/ASX 200 quarterly rebalances (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec) and SPI 200 roll/expiry (last trading at midday on the third Thursday of the quarter, cash-settled) create institutional volume; mark these. • Australia publishes no daily institutional buy/sell figures - infer flow from closing-auction volume, substantial-holder notices (>5% ASIC disclosure), index rebalancing, and ASX block-trade data. |
You need price and volume data at sufficient granularity. For accurate profiles, tick or 1-minute data is best. Most modern charting platforms (TradingView, NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart) calculate Volume Profile automatically. For Australian markets, ensure your feed provides accurate volume at each price level; IRESS, ASX market data, or reputable broker feeds (Interactive Brokers, CommSec, nabtrade) work well. Note that SPI 200 day-session and 24-hour profiles can differ.
Match the profile period to your trading timeframe. For intraday trading, use previous day's profile plus developing session profile. For swing trading, use daily and weekly composite profiles. For positional trading, use weekly and monthly profiles. The key is that the profile period should represent activity relevant to your holding period.
POC can differ based on: (1) Tick/row size used for aggregation, (2) Exact time boundaries of the profile, (3) Data source differences. Minor variations are normal. For consistency, use the same settings across your analysis. The exact POC level matters less than understanding the general area of highest activity.
Wait for price to approach POC from above or below. Look for rejection candlestick (hammer from below, shooting star from above). Confirm with above-average volume. Enter on close of rejection candle. Stop beyond POC by 1 ATR or nearest LVN. Target: next HVN or opposite VA boundary. POC bounces work best in ranging conditions.
VWAP is a single line showing the volume-weighted average price throughout the session - a moving fair value. Volume Profile is a complete histogram showing volume distribution at every price level. VWAP tells you one fair value number; Profile tells you the entire distribution. They complement each other well.
Open in Value (OiV): Balanced day likely, trade VA boundaries. Open above Value (OaV): Bullish bias, VAH becomes support if holding. Open below Value (ObV): Bearish bias, VAL becomes resistance if failing. Open Drive: Strong conviction, trade with direction. The opening sets the day's context and bias.
Initial Balance (IB) is the first hour's price range. Wide IB often leads to rotational day within IB. Narrow IB often leads to breakout. IB high and low become tactical levels. IB breakout (price exceeding IB range) often leads to continuation. Measure move: IB width often projects the extension target.
Draw Fibonacci retracements from significant swings. Overlay on Volume Profile. When a Fibonacci level (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) aligns with an HVN, it's a high-probability confluence level. When Fibonacci falls in an LVN, it's less significant. Prioritize trading at levels with both Fibonacci and profile confluence.
Poor highs/lows are session extremes with single prints (very low volume). They indicate unfinished auction - price moved there but wasn't accepted. They're likely to be revisited. Use naked poor highs/lows as targets for mean reversion trades. They're weaker than 'excess' (single prints with clear rejection).
Composite profiles aggregate volume across multiple sessions (weekly, monthly). They reveal longer-term institutional levels. Weekly POC is more significant than daily POC. Use monthly composite for swing trading levels. Confluence between daily, weekly, and monthly levels creates the strongest S/R zones.
Start with POC as initial VA. Iteratively compare volume at prices above and below current VA. Add the higher-volume price to VA. Repeat until VA contains 70% of total volume. Upper boundary = VAH, lower = VAL. Handle edge cases where one side runs out of prices before reaching 70%.
Delta profile separates buy volume from sell volume at each price level, showing the imbalance (Delta = Buy - Sell). Strong positive delta at support = genuine buying. Strong negative delta at resistance = genuine selling. This provides deeper insight than total volume alone, revealing which side was aggressive at each level.
Institutional accumulation shows as: Multiple sessions with overlapping Value Areas, POC remaining stable or slowly migrating higher, increasing total volume without proportional price extension. They're building positions without moving price. Eventually breaks out with conviction. Correlate with institutional signals (super-fund and foreign activity, closing-auction volume) for confirmation.
Yes. Train classifiers on profile features: POC location relative to prior days, VA width, profile shape metrics, HVN count, IB width. Target: next session direction or profile type. Use predictions to bias approach (rotation vs trend). Feature engineering is crucial - encode profile characteristics as numerical features for the model.
Volume Profile provides the levels; order flow provides real-time confirmation. When price reaches profile level, watch order flow for: Large bid/ask imbalance confirming direction, absorption (large orders being filled without price moving), aggressive buying/selling. This combination gives both context (profile) and timing (flow).
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